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90% Chance of Witnessing a Black Hole Explosion Within a Decade: New Study

Thursday, September 18, 2025 | 0 Views Last Updated 2025-09-18T10:29:27Z

A groundbreaking study from physicists at the University of Massachusetts Amherst (UMass Amherst) suggests a 90 percent probability of observing a black hole explosion within the next 10 years. This event, predicted by Stephen Hawking decades ago, would revolutionize our understanding of the universe. The study challenges the previously held belief that such explosions are exceedingly rare, occurring perhaps once every 100,000 years. Instead, the researchers propose a far more frequent occurrence, with an average of one visible explosion per decade.

90% Chance of Witnessing a Black Hole Explosion Within a Decade: New Study
Image Source: www.sciencealert.com

The predicted explosion stems from the theorized death of primordial black holes (PBHs), formed in the aftermath of the Big Bang. Unlike the supermassive black holes at the centers of galaxies, these PBHs are estimated to be asteroid-sized, resulting in a significantly shorter lifespan. Their evaporation, driven by Hawking radiation, would culminate in a powerful explosion releasing a comprehensive collection of fundamental particles, both known and unknown.

This includes particles currently understood, like electrons and neutrons, but also potentially elusive particles such as dark matter. Even more excitingly, the explosion could reveal entirely unknown particles—the 'unknown unknowns'—that have never been contemplated before. As Joaquim Iguaz Juan, an astrophysicist at UMass Amherst, explains, "We would get a definitive record of every particle that makes up everything in the Universe. It would completely revolutionize physics and help us rewrite the history of the Universe."

The UMass Amherst team's model incorporates a hypothetical heavier version of the electron, termed a "dark electron," which introduces an electric charge not seen in known black holes. This modification, they argue, could temporarily stabilize the PBHs, delaying their evaporation and increasing the likelihood of observing the explosion within our lifetime. Andrea Thamm, a physicist at UMass Amherst, highlights the runaway process: "The lighter a black hole is, the hotter it should be and the more particles it will emit. As PBHs evaporate, they become ever lighter, and so hotter, emitting even more radiation in a runaway process until explosion."

Michael Baker, also a physicist at UMass Amherst, points out that the team's simulations predict that if their models are accurate, such an event should be observable by our current gamma-ray observatories within the next decade. Confirmation of this phenomenon would not only validate Hawking's theory but also offer direct evidence of Hawking radiation and provide unprecedented insights into the fundamental building blocks of our universe. The research has been published in the journal Physical Review Letters.


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Originally published at: https://www.sciencealert.com/theres-a-90-chance-well-see-a-black-hole-explode-in-the-next-10-years-study-says

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