A recent study published in *The Lancet* reveals a significant decline in deaths from chronic illnesses like heart disease, cancer, and diabetes across the globe. Analyzing data from 185 countries between 2010 and 2019, researchers found a decrease in the probability of dying from a non-communicable disease (NCD) before age 80 in the vast majority of nations. This positive trend demonstrates the impact of global public health initiatives and advancements in medical care.
However, the study also highlights disparities in progress. While 152 countries saw reduced NCD mortality for women and 147 for men, the rate of decline slowed in over half of these countries during the 2010s compared to the previous decade. This deceleration warrants further investigation into the effectiveness of current strategies and the need for renewed efforts.
In 2019, Japan boasted the lowest risk of NCD death for women, and Singapore for men. Conversely, Afghanistan and Eswatini had the highest rates, underscoring the vast global health inequities that persist. All high-income nations included in the study showed a reduction in NCD mortality, with Denmark experiencing the most significant improvement and the United States the least. While some middle-income countries like China, Egypt, Nigeria, Russia, and Brazil also showed improvements, India and Papua New Guinea saw increases in NCD deaths during the same period.
The study points to several key factors driving the positive changes: improved healthcare systems integrating better treatments and preventative measures; widespread adoption of statins and hypertensive medications to reduce heart attack and stroke risk; and the development of vaccines for diseases such as hepatitis and cervical cancer. Furthermore, government regulations restricting tobacco and alcohol consumption played a crucial role in reducing mortality associated with these substances.
Despite this progress, the study underscores the urgency for continued investment and innovation in global health initiatives to ensure that the positive trend continues and that health equity is achieved worldwide. Further research is needed to identify and address the factors contributing to the slower decline in NCD mortality rates observed in the 2010s, ensuring that the UN's goal of a one-third reduction in NCD deaths by 2030 is met.
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Originally published at: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-02905-z
