The stage is set for an epic showdown as the Las Vegas Aces and Indiana Fever clash one final time in Game 5 of their semifinal series on Tuesday night. With a coveted spot in the 2025 WNBA Finals awaiting the victor – and the Phoenix Mercury poised as their opponent – the stakes couldn't be higher for both franchises.
Two months ago, the Aces were mired in a challenging season, flirting with a sub-.500 record. However, a remarkable 16-game winning streak to close the regular season catapulted them to the No. 2 seed, firmly establishing them as championship contenders. Despite this late-season surge, their playoff journey has been far from smooth. They narrowly escaped the Seattle Storm with a one-point victory in their decisive first-round Game 3 and now face another winner-take-all scenario.
Conversely, the Indiana Fever's presence in Game 5 is a testament to their incredible resilience. A season that began with high hopes was quickly derailed by a cascade of injuries, most notably a series of leg issues that limited superstar Caitlin Clark to just 13 games. In total, the Fever lost five players to season-ending ailments, forcing them to claw their way into the playoffs. Defying expectations, they stunned the No. 3 seed Atlanta Dream in the first round with a dramatic Game 3 comeback and have since pushed the heavily favored Aces to the brink.
Betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook position the Aces as significant favorites at -8, with the over/under for the crucial contest set at 158.5 points.
Will the Aces punch their ticket to the Finals for the third time in four years, or will the Fever's improbable run continue its captivating narrative? Our panel of experts weighs in:
Analyst Ayala predicts an Aces victory, sticking to his pre-series forecast. He emphasizes that a stellar, 'Point Gawd-esque' performance from Chelsea Gray will be pivotal for Las Vegas to secure the win.
Gibbs also sides with the Aces, acknowledging the Fever's incredible postseason fight. He believes that A'ja Wilson, widely regarded as the best player in the world, will deliver a game-winning performance on her home court in an elimination scenario. However, he cautions that Wilson cannot carry the team alone; while Indiana has shown surprising depth despite injuries, the Aces' secondary players, particularly Jewell Loyd (who has averaged under five points this series), must step up. The Aces' impressive streak of not losing back-to-back games since July also bodes well for a strong bounce-back.
Gonzalez, however, presents a compelling case for the Fever. He argues that the consistent underestimation of the Fever fuels their dangerous hunger and urgency as underdogs. While conceding A'ja Wilson's dominance, Gonzalez credits Aliyah Boston's exceptional defense against her. Furthermore, Kelsey Mitchell is currently playing some of the best basketball of her career. The Fever's aggressive, un-intimidated play, he suggests, could lead to yet another upset.
Finally, Maloney firmly reiterates his consistent pick for the Aces. He highlights Las Vegas's formidable home record this season (20-6 combined regular season and playoffs) and, of course, the unparalleled talent of A'ja Wilson. Crucially, he points out that the Aces' supporting cast – including Chelsea Gray, Jewell Loyd, NaLyssa Smith, and Dana Evans – has performed significantly better at home in the postseason, averaging 35.3 points on 50.5% shooting compared to 24.8 points on 45.1% shooting on the road. This home-court boost, he believes, will provide Wilson and Jackie Young with the necessary support to reach the Finals.
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Originally published at: https://www.cbssports.com/wnba/news/aces-vs-fever-in-wnba-semifinals-expert-predictions-for-decisive-game-5-as-mercury-await-the-winner/
