Week 2 of college football saw some surprising upsets and nail-biting finishes, proving the unpredictable nature of the sport. My projection model had a winning week, but luck certainly played a role. Two games covered by a mere half-point, highlighting the importance of securing the best possible betting odds. Even small differences in lines can significantly impact your long-term success. Last week's record: 3-2, +0.80 units. Season record: 5-4, +0.60 units, 6.0% ROI.
This week, I've identified five key matchups ripe for strategic betting, with at least three more on the verge of making the cut. Let's dive into my analysis:
**Colorado +4 (-110) vs. Houston:** While Houston appears improved and Colorado is trending downward, the point spread feels excessive. My model predicts a much closer game, making this +4 spread a compelling buy-low opportunity on Colorado. It's a gamble, but the value is there.
**Under 61 (-110) Arkansas vs. Ole Miss:** Both teams are known for their high-octane offenses, having frequently topped 50 points this season. However, the potential for a lower-scoring game exists, especially considering Ole Miss's performance against tougher competition. I believe the over/under is inflated, making the under a smart play.
**Under 54.5 (-110) South Alabama vs. Auburn:** I'm anticipating a dominant Auburn performance. While South Alabama aims for a fast pace, their offensive struggles could limit their scoring potential. Auburn's upcoming tough schedule might also incentivize a focused, injury-free victory here, making the under attractive.
**Over 51 (-110) Western Michigan vs. [Opponent Name]:** Western Michigan's slower pace last week was largely due to holding the lead. Expecting them to be trailing in this game, their tempo should increase, leading to a higher-scoring affair. My projections put the total well into the mid-50s.
**Under 52.5 (-110) Tulane vs. Duke:** BetMGM offers the best odds on this game. While Tulane is a strong team, Duke's defensive talent could be the deciding factor. The narrative of Duke quarterback Darian Mensah seeking revenge against his former team is tempting, but I'm prioritizing the statistical analysis, which points to a lower-scoring game.
**South Carolina -3 (-115):** South Carolina presents a solid bet, as per my analysis.
Remember, always shop around for the best odds before placing your bets. Good luck!
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Originally published at: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6620413/2025/09/13/college-football-best-bets-week-3-duke-colorado/
